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“We are more willing to ascribe value to AI portfolio pulling through other products, which could lead to additional valuation upside,” Morgan Stanley said

While Axon’s stock has soared around 150% year-to-date, with valuation steep at about 14.5 times its 2026 estimated sales, Morgan Stanley said “growth averaging over 40% over the last 5 years, the recurring nature of the business has grown enough to increase belief in durability around 30% growth rates that in combination with uniqueness of asset, can support a premium valuation.”

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Axon is strongly positioned in the public safety market, supported by police departments’ growing budgets for technology and a lack of competitors offering comparable software solutions. Reliance on public tax revenues, regulatory developments, and slower-than-expected adoption of new hardware and software solutions are risk on the upside.

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Morgan Stanley’s analysts say the 25-30% revenue growth which Axon has put up is becoming more durable over the long term, given increasing adoption of its higher-priced software bundles, such as officer safety plans, and new offerings like drones and license plate readers.

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Investing.com -- Morgan Stanley on Tuesday upgraded taser maker Axon Enterprise Inc (NASDAQ:AXON) to “overweight,” lifting target price by $200 to $700, banking on its strong growth driven by expanding software portfolio, adoption of artificial intelligence solutions

Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) analyst highlighted Axon’s total addressable market (TAM) of $77 billion remains largely untapped. Axon’s AI product, Draft One generated a $100 million pipeline just three months after its launch.