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On a 12-month view, 4.3%. But more important than a spuriously precise ‘right’ answer are the frameworks for thinking about benchmark costs of money.

Buy the S&P 500 Index. Hold it. Forget it. That’s one approach. An admittedly self-interested, active manager takes the other side.

If history is any guide, at this juncture bonds may be a more attractive proposition than equities, at least in the short term.

Adriane Brown is president and chief operating officer of Intellectual Ventures, the Bellevue, Wash.-based intellectual property and tech company best known for its giant patent portfolio and big ideas from its co-founder, former Microsoft CTO Nathan… Read More

How much pain have you experienced? How much do you think you could endure? How painful have your worst investing experiences been? How can you best prepare yourself for the pain that financial markets will, undoubtedly, inflict upon you?

A recession over the next 12 months seems probable. But historically how bad have recessions really been for equity investors?

This is not a predict the US election outcome piece. Instead, some heuristics on how markets behave in and around prior votes. More boring perhaps, but hopefully less divisive.

TheRoad Ahead

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The inflation surge ended in June 2022. Asset class performance was similar to past such periods. Want to know what typically happens next? Read on!

The inverse link between real rates and the equity multiple. The same for gold. The positive correlation between credit conditions and real GDP growth. All these relationships have recently broken. Re-coupling would require some big moves. Will old flames be rekindled?

— Adriane Brown, managing partner at Seattle VC firm Flying Fish, joined the board of global investment firm KKR. This is Brown’s second notable board appointment this year after she… Read More

— Seattle-based venture capital firm Madrona Venture Group announced that Anu Sharma is joining its investment team as a principal. Sharma was most recently a senior product manager at Amazon Web… Read More

“Racism is a pandemic. Whether it’s tech, or whether it’s any other form of business, we have the need for a vaccine that’s going to stop it. And I think… Read More

Is it possible to revitalize a beloved but frumpy 56-year-old organization by running it like a startup? Will Daugherty says yes. Since taking the helm of Seattle’s Pacific Science Center… Read More

— The Washington Technology Industry Association (WTIA) elected Dave Cotter as the new chair of its board of directors and Kristen Forecki as vice chair for the next two years.… Read More

TheRoad Aheadbill Gates pdf

2024. A bad year for beta. Bonds to outperform equities, but neither will return more than low single digits. Risk parity over 60/40. More alternatives. Careful of gap risk.

Sam Altman thinks ChatGPT can increase productivity by 20%. We discuss how we monitor productivity ahead of the official data. Economy-wide, there’s not yet much to see.

Do regimes exist in reality or just in hindsight? Can one reliably profit from correctly identifying them and if so how?