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A recession over the next 12 months seems probable. But historically how bad have recessions really been for equity investors?

If history is any guide, at this juncture bonds may be a more attractive proposition than equities, at least in the short term.

On a 12-month view, 4.3%. But more important than a spuriously precise ‘right’ answer are the frameworks for thinking about benchmark costs of money.

The inflation surge ended in June 2022. Asset class performance was similar to past such periods. Want to know what typically happens next? Read on!

2024. A bad year for beta. Bonds to outperform equities, but neither will return more than low single digits. Risk parity over 60/40. More alternatives. Careful of gap risk.

Do regimes exist in reality or just in hindsight? Can one reliably profit from correctly identifying them and if so how?

The inverse link between real rates and the equity multiple. The same for gold. The positive correlation between credit conditions and real GDP growth. All these relationships have recently broken. Re-coupling would require some big moves. Will old flames be rekindled?

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TheRoad Aheadbill Gates pdf

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This is not a predict the US election outcome piece. Instead, some heuristics on how markets behave in and around prior votes. More boring perhaps, but hopefully less divisive.

TheRoad Ahead

How much pain have you experienced? How much do you think you could endure? How painful have your worst investing experiences been? How can you best prepare yourself for the pain that financial markets will, undoubtedly, inflict upon you?

Buy the S&P 500 Index. Hold it. Forget it. That’s one approach. An admittedly self-interested, active manager takes the other side.

This material is intended only for Institutional Investors, Qualified Investors and Investment Professionals. Not intended for retail public distribution. Investment management services are offered through Man Group plc’s regulated subsidiaries as identified in the Terms and Conditions.

Sam Altman thinks ChatGPT can increase productivity by 20%. We discuss how we monitor productivity ahead of the official data. Economy-wide, there’s not yet much to see.