We propose a new empirical method to estimate the response of consumption to permanent and transitory income shocks for different groups of households. The method overcomes the time aggregation bias found in existing literature. We apply this method to administrative data from Denmark, allowing us to finely divide the population to identify heterogeneous behavior. We find a strong relation between liquid wealth and consumption smoothing. In addition, liquid wealth predicts consumption behavior across all other household characteristics we consider. We use our method to estimate the size of monetary policy redistribution channels.

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I show that the periodic and chaotic behavior exhibited by the two-sector Robinson-Solow-Srinivasan model in discrete-time is asymptotically irrelevant. If the discrete time interval is smaller than a critical limit, the qualitative properties of the model are the same as those in the continuous-time model.

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The standard model of permanent and transitory income provides estimates that differ depending on the type of moments used---levels or differences---and the weighting matrix applied. We propose two changes to the standard model. First, we account for the time-aggregated nature of observed income data. Second, we allow transitory shocks to persist for varying lengths of time. With only one additional parameter, our proposed model consistently estimates the parameters of the income process irrespective of the moments and weighting matrix applied. We strongly advise against estimating the standard model using difference moments.

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2012-2014 Officer, International Monetary Fund 2005-2009 Vice President, Nomura International Plc. Papers "Do Households Substitute Intertemporally? 10 Structural Shocks That Suggest Not" (Latest pdf) Abstract I combine microdata on the intertemporal marginal propensity to consume (iMPC) with 10 different structural macro shocks to identify the role of intertemporal substitution in consumption behavior. Although some of the shocks lead to large and persistent changes in real interest rates—which in many models would induce a large intertemporal substitution effect—I find no evidence that households shift the timing of their consumption in response to these interest rate changes. Indeed, the iMPC explains almost all the aggregate consumption response, leaving no role for intertemporal substitution. "Income Shocks and their Transmission into Consumption" (Latest pdf, Working Paper) (with Alexandros Theloudis) This review will appear in the Encyclopedia of Consumption. "Welfare and Spending Effects of Consumption Stimulus Policies" (Latest pdf, FEDS Working Paper) (with Chris Carroll, Ivan Frankovic, and Häkon Tretvoll) Abstract Using a heterogeneous agent model calibrated to match measured spending dynamics over four years following an income shock (Fagereng et al. (2021)), we assess the effectiveness of three fiscal stimulus policies employed during recent recessions. Unemployment insurance (UI) extensions are the clear ``bang for the buck'' winner when effectiveness is measured in utility terms. Stimulus checks are second best and have two advantages (over UI): they arrive and are spent faster, despite being less targeted, and they are scalable to any desired size. A temporary (two-year) cut in the rate of wage taxation is considerably less effective than the other policies and has negligible effects in the version of our model without a multiplier. "A Parsimonious Model of Idiosyncratic Income" (Latest pdf, FEDS Working Paper) (with Martin B Holm and Häkon Tretvoll) Abstract The standard model of permanent and transitory income provides estimates that differ depending on the type of moments used---levels or differences---and the weighting matrix applied. We propose two changes to the standard model. First, we account for the time-aggregated nature of observed income data. Second, we allow transitory shocks to persist for varying lengths of time. With only one additional parameter, our proposed model consistently estimates the parameters of the income process irrespective of the moments and weighting matrix applied. We strongly advise against estimating the standard model using difference moments. "Consumption Heterogeneity: Micro Drivers and Macro Implications" (Latest pdf, FEDS Working Paper, Danmarks Nationalbank Working Paper, Code) (with Andreas Kuchler) Forthcoming at the American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics Abstract We propose a new empirical method to estimate the response of consumption to permanent and transitory income shocks for different groups of households. The method overcomes the time aggregation bias found in existing literature. We apply this method to administrative data from Denmark, allowing us to finely divide the population to identify heterogeneous behavior. We find a strong relation between liquid wealth and consumption smoothing. In addition, liquid wealth predicts consumption behavior across all other household characteristics we consider. We use our method to estimate the size of monetary policy redistribution channels. "In Search of Lost Time Aggregation" (Latest pdf, FEDS Working Paper, Code) (previously circulated as "Time Aggregation in Panel Data on Income and Consumption") Economics Letters, Volume 189, 2020, Article 108998 Abstract In 1960, Working noted that time aggregation of a random walk induces serial correlation in the first difference that is not present in the original series. This important contribution has been overlooked in a recent literature analyzing income and consumption in panel data. I examine Blundell, Pistaferri and Preston (2008) as an important example for which time aggregation has quantitatively large effects. Using new techniques to correct for the problem, I find the estimate for the partial insurance to transitory shocks, originally estimated to be 0.05, increases to 0.24. This larger estimate resolves the dissonance between the low partial consumption insurance estimates of Blundell, Pistaferri and Preston (2008) and the high marginal propensities to consume found in the natural experiment literature. A remaining puzzle is the low estimate I recover for the partial insurance to permanent shocks. "Modeling the Consumption Response to the CARES Act" (Latest pdf, FEDS Working Paper, Code) (with Christopher D. Carroll, Jiri Slacalek, and Matthew N. White) Interactive Jupyter Notebook International Journal of Central Banking, Issue 67, March 2021 Abstract To predict the effects of the 2020 U.S. CARES Act on consumption, we extend a model that matches responses of households to past consumption stimulus packages. The extension allows us to account for two novel features of the coronavirus crisis. First, during the lockdown, many types of spending are undesirable or impossible. Second, some of the jobs that disappear during the lockdown will not reappear when it is lifted. We estimate that, if the lockdown is short-lived, the combination of expanded unemployment insurance benefits and stimulus payments should be sufficient to allow a swift recovery in consumer spending to its pre-crisis levels. If the lockdown lasts longer, an extension of enhanced unemployment benefits will likely be necessary if consumption spending is to recover. "Sticky Expectations and Consumption Dynamics" (pdf, Code) (with Christopher D. Carroll, Jiri Slacalek, Kiichi Tokuoka and Matthew N. White) NBER Working Paper No. 24377, March 2018. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, Volume 12, No. 3, July 2020 Abstract Macroeconomic models often invoke consumption "habits" to explain the substantial persistence of aggregate consumption growth. But a large literature has found no evidence of habits in microeconomic datasets that measure the behavior of individual households. We show that the apparent conflict can be explained by a model in which consumers have accurate knowledge of their personal circumstances but 'sticky expectations' about the macroeconomy. In our model, the persistence of aggregate consumption growth reflects consumers' imperfect attention to aggregate shocks. Our proposed degree of (macro) inattention has negligible utility costs, because aggregate shocks constitute only a tiny proportion of the uncertainty that consumers face. "A Note on the Asymptotic Properties of the Two-Sector Robinson-Solow-Srinivasan Model" (pdf) Abstract I show that the periodic and chaotic behavior exhibited by the two-sector Robinson-Solow-Srinivasan model in discrete-time is asymptotically irrelevant. If the discrete time interval is smaller than a critical limit, the qualitative properties of the model are the same as those in the continuous-time model. Policy Notes "Failure of Silicon Valley Bank Reduced Local Consumer Spending but Had Limited Effect on Aggregate Spending" (Kansas City Fed Economic Bulletin September 2023) (with Taeyoung Doh and Minchul Shin) "Winners and losers from recent asset price changes" (FEDS Note May 2023) (with Will Gamber) "Substitutability between Balance Sheet Reductions and Policy Rate Hikes: Some Illustrations and a Discussion" (FEDS Note June 2022) (with Etienne Gagnon, James Hebden, and James Trevino) Discussion Papers Discussion of 'When Inequality Matters for Macro and Macro Matters for Inequality' (pdf) (with Christopher D. Carroll) NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2017, volume 32 Other Projects I am an active contributor to the Econ-ARK project (website)

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A back-lit LED panel is made of an array of LEDs fitted on a horizontal plate shining vertically down through a diffuser into the space to be illuminated. Back- ...

Optical lens

2014-2019 Ph.D. Candidate, Johns Hopkins, Department of Economics 2012-2014 Officer, International Monetary Fund 2005-2009 Vice President, Nomura International Plc. Papers "Do Households Substitute Intertemporally? 10 Structural Shocks That Suggest Not" (Latest pdf) Abstract I combine microdata on the intertemporal marginal propensity to consume (iMPC) with 10 different structural macro shocks to identify the role of intertemporal substitution in consumption behavior. Although some of the shocks lead to large and persistent changes in real interest rates—which in many models would induce a large intertemporal substitution effect—I find no evidence that households shift the timing of their consumption in response to these interest rate changes. Indeed, the iMPC explains almost all the aggregate consumption response, leaving no role for intertemporal substitution. "Income Shocks and their Transmission into Consumption" (Latest pdf, Working Paper) (with Alexandros Theloudis) This review will appear in the Encyclopedia of Consumption. "Welfare and Spending Effects of Consumption Stimulus Policies" (Latest pdf, FEDS Working Paper) (with Chris Carroll, Ivan Frankovic, and Häkon Tretvoll) Abstract Using a heterogeneous agent model calibrated to match measured spending dynamics over four years following an income shock (Fagereng et al. (2021)), we assess the effectiveness of three fiscal stimulus policies employed during recent recessions. Unemployment insurance (UI) extensions are the clear ``bang for the buck'' winner when effectiveness is measured in utility terms. Stimulus checks are second best and have two advantages (over UI): they arrive and are spent faster, despite being less targeted, and they are scalable to any desired size. A temporary (two-year) cut in the rate of wage taxation is considerably less effective than the other policies and has negligible effects in the version of our model without a multiplier. "A Parsimonious Model of Idiosyncratic Income" (Latest pdf, FEDS Working Paper) (with Martin B Holm and Häkon Tretvoll) Abstract The standard model of permanent and transitory income provides estimates that differ depending on the type of moments used---levels or differences---and the weighting matrix applied. We propose two changes to the standard model. First, we account for the time-aggregated nature of observed income data. Second, we allow transitory shocks to persist for varying lengths of time. With only one additional parameter, our proposed model consistently estimates the parameters of the income process irrespective of the moments and weighting matrix applied. We strongly advise against estimating the standard model using difference moments. "Consumption Heterogeneity: Micro Drivers and Macro Implications" (Latest pdf, FEDS Working Paper, Danmarks Nationalbank Working Paper, Code) (with Andreas Kuchler) Forthcoming at the American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics Abstract We propose a new empirical method to estimate the response of consumption to permanent and transitory income shocks for different groups of households. The method overcomes the time aggregation bias found in existing literature. We apply this method to administrative data from Denmark, allowing us to finely divide the population to identify heterogeneous behavior. We find a strong relation between liquid wealth and consumption smoothing. In addition, liquid wealth predicts consumption behavior across all other household characteristics we consider. We use our method to estimate the size of monetary policy redistribution channels. "In Search of Lost Time Aggregation" (Latest pdf, FEDS Working Paper, Code) (previously circulated as "Time Aggregation in Panel Data on Income and Consumption") Economics Letters, Volume 189, 2020, Article 108998 Abstract In 1960, Working noted that time aggregation of a random walk induces serial correlation in the first difference that is not present in the original series. This important contribution has been overlooked in a recent literature analyzing income and consumption in panel data. I examine Blundell, Pistaferri and Preston (2008) as an important example for which time aggregation has quantitatively large effects. Using new techniques to correct for the problem, I find the estimate for the partial insurance to transitory shocks, originally estimated to be 0.05, increases to 0.24. This larger estimate resolves the dissonance between the low partial consumption insurance estimates of Blundell, Pistaferri and Preston (2008) and the high marginal propensities to consume found in the natural experiment literature. A remaining puzzle is the low estimate I recover for the partial insurance to permanent shocks. "Modeling the Consumption Response to the CARES Act" (Latest pdf, FEDS Working Paper, Code) (with Christopher D. Carroll, Jiri Slacalek, and Matthew N. White) Interactive Jupyter Notebook International Journal of Central Banking, Issue 67, March 2021 Abstract To predict the effects of the 2020 U.S. CARES Act on consumption, we extend a model that matches responses of households to past consumption stimulus packages. The extension allows us to account for two novel features of the coronavirus crisis. First, during the lockdown, many types of spending are undesirable or impossible. Second, some of the jobs that disappear during the lockdown will not reappear when it is lifted. We estimate that, if the lockdown is short-lived, the combination of expanded unemployment insurance benefits and stimulus payments should be sufficient to allow a swift recovery in consumer spending to its pre-crisis levels. If the lockdown lasts longer, an extension of enhanced unemployment benefits will likely be necessary if consumption spending is to recover. "Sticky Expectations and Consumption Dynamics" (pdf, Code) (with Christopher D. Carroll, Jiri Slacalek, Kiichi Tokuoka and Matthew N. White) NBER Working Paper No. 24377, March 2018. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, Volume 12, No. 3, July 2020 Abstract Macroeconomic models often invoke consumption "habits" to explain the substantial persistence of aggregate consumption growth. But a large literature has found no evidence of habits in microeconomic datasets that measure the behavior of individual households. We show that the apparent conflict can be explained by a model in which consumers have accurate knowledge of their personal circumstances but 'sticky expectations' about the macroeconomy. In our model, the persistence of aggregate consumption growth reflects consumers' imperfect attention to aggregate shocks. Our proposed degree of (macro) inattention has negligible utility costs, because aggregate shocks constitute only a tiny proportion of the uncertainty that consumers face. "A Note on the Asymptotic Properties of the Two-Sector Robinson-Solow-Srinivasan Model" (pdf) Abstract I show that the periodic and chaotic behavior exhibited by the two-sector Robinson-Solow-Srinivasan model in discrete-time is asymptotically irrelevant. If the discrete time interval is smaller than a critical limit, the qualitative properties of the model are the same as those in the continuous-time model. Policy Notes "Failure of Silicon Valley Bank Reduced Local Consumer Spending but Had Limited Effect on Aggregate Spending" (Kansas City Fed Economic Bulletin September 2023) (with Taeyoung Doh and Minchul Shin) "Winners and losers from recent asset price changes" (FEDS Note May 2023) (with Will Gamber) "Substitutability between Balance Sheet Reductions and Policy Rate Hikes: Some Illustrations and a Discussion" (FEDS Note June 2022) (with Etienne Gagnon, James Hebden, and James Trevino) Discussion Papers Discussion of 'When Inequality Matters for Macro and Macro Matters for Inequality' (pdf) (with Christopher D. Carroll) NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2017, volume 32 Other Projects I am an active contributor to the Econ-ARK project (website)

2005-2009 Vice President, Nomura International Plc. Papers "Do Households Substitute Intertemporally? 10 Structural Shocks That Suggest Not" (Latest pdf) Abstract I combine microdata on the intertemporal marginal propensity to consume (iMPC) with 10 different structural macro shocks to identify the role of intertemporal substitution in consumption behavior. Although some of the shocks lead to large and persistent changes in real interest rates—which in many models would induce a large intertemporal substitution effect—I find no evidence that households shift the timing of their consumption in response to these interest rate changes. Indeed, the iMPC explains almost all the aggregate consumption response, leaving no role for intertemporal substitution. "Income Shocks and their Transmission into Consumption" (Latest pdf, Working Paper) (with Alexandros Theloudis) This review will appear in the Encyclopedia of Consumption. "Welfare and Spending Effects of Consumption Stimulus Policies" (Latest pdf, FEDS Working Paper) (with Chris Carroll, Ivan Frankovic, and Häkon Tretvoll) Abstract Using a heterogeneous agent model calibrated to match measured spending dynamics over four years following an income shock (Fagereng et al. (2021)), we assess the effectiveness of three fiscal stimulus policies employed during recent recessions. Unemployment insurance (UI) extensions are the clear ``bang for the buck'' winner when effectiveness is measured in utility terms. Stimulus checks are second best and have two advantages (over UI): they arrive and are spent faster, despite being less targeted, and they are scalable to any desired size. A temporary (two-year) cut in the rate of wage taxation is considerably less effective than the other policies and has negligible effects in the version of our model without a multiplier. "A Parsimonious Model of Idiosyncratic Income" (Latest pdf, FEDS Working Paper) (with Martin B Holm and Häkon Tretvoll) Abstract The standard model of permanent and transitory income provides estimates that differ depending on the type of moments used---levels or differences---and the weighting matrix applied. We propose two changes to the standard model. First, we account for the time-aggregated nature of observed income data. Second, we allow transitory shocks to persist for varying lengths of time. With only one additional parameter, our proposed model consistently estimates the parameters of the income process irrespective of the moments and weighting matrix applied. We strongly advise against estimating the standard model using difference moments. "Consumption Heterogeneity: Micro Drivers and Macro Implications" (Latest pdf, FEDS Working Paper, Danmarks Nationalbank Working Paper, Code) (with Andreas Kuchler) Forthcoming at the American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics Abstract We propose a new empirical method to estimate the response of consumption to permanent and transitory income shocks for different groups of households. The method overcomes the time aggregation bias found in existing literature. We apply this method to administrative data from Denmark, allowing us to finely divide the population to identify heterogeneous behavior. We find a strong relation between liquid wealth and consumption smoothing. In addition, liquid wealth predicts consumption behavior across all other household characteristics we consider. We use our method to estimate the size of monetary policy redistribution channels. "In Search of Lost Time Aggregation" (Latest pdf, FEDS Working Paper, Code) (previously circulated as "Time Aggregation in Panel Data on Income and Consumption") Economics Letters, Volume 189, 2020, Article 108998 Abstract In 1960, Working noted that time aggregation of a random walk induces serial correlation in the first difference that is not present in the original series. This important contribution has been overlooked in a recent literature analyzing income and consumption in panel data. I examine Blundell, Pistaferri and Preston (2008) as an important example for which time aggregation has quantitatively large effects. Using new techniques to correct for the problem, I find the estimate for the partial insurance to transitory shocks, originally estimated to be 0.05, increases to 0.24. This larger estimate resolves the dissonance between the low partial consumption insurance estimates of Blundell, Pistaferri and Preston (2008) and the high marginal propensities to consume found in the natural experiment literature. A remaining puzzle is the low estimate I recover for the partial insurance to permanent shocks. "Modeling the Consumption Response to the CARES Act" (Latest pdf, FEDS Working Paper, Code) (with Christopher D. Carroll, Jiri Slacalek, and Matthew N. White) Interactive Jupyter Notebook International Journal of Central Banking, Issue 67, March 2021 Abstract To predict the effects of the 2020 U.S. CARES Act on consumption, we extend a model that matches responses of households to past consumption stimulus packages. The extension allows us to account for two novel features of the coronavirus crisis. First, during the lockdown, many types of spending are undesirable or impossible. Second, some of the jobs that disappear during the lockdown will not reappear when it is lifted. We estimate that, if the lockdown is short-lived, the combination of expanded unemployment insurance benefits and stimulus payments should be sufficient to allow a swift recovery in consumer spending to its pre-crisis levels. If the lockdown lasts longer, an extension of enhanced unemployment benefits will likely be necessary if consumption spending is to recover. "Sticky Expectations and Consumption Dynamics" (pdf, Code) (with Christopher D. Carroll, Jiri Slacalek, Kiichi Tokuoka and Matthew N. White) NBER Working Paper No. 24377, March 2018. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, Volume 12, No. 3, July 2020 Abstract Macroeconomic models often invoke consumption "habits" to explain the substantial persistence of aggregate consumption growth. But a large literature has found no evidence of habits in microeconomic datasets that measure the behavior of individual households. We show that the apparent conflict can be explained by a model in which consumers have accurate knowledge of their personal circumstances but 'sticky expectations' about the macroeconomy. In our model, the persistence of aggregate consumption growth reflects consumers' imperfect attention to aggregate shocks. Our proposed degree of (macro) inattention has negligible utility costs, because aggregate shocks constitute only a tiny proportion of the uncertainty that consumers face. "A Note on the Asymptotic Properties of the Two-Sector Robinson-Solow-Srinivasan Model" (pdf) Abstract I show that the periodic and chaotic behavior exhibited by the two-sector Robinson-Solow-Srinivasan model in discrete-time is asymptotically irrelevant. If the discrete time interval is smaller than a critical limit, the qualitative properties of the model are the same as those in the continuous-time model. Policy Notes "Failure of Silicon Valley Bank Reduced Local Consumer Spending but Had Limited Effect on Aggregate Spending" (Kansas City Fed Economic Bulletin September 2023) (with Taeyoung Doh and Minchul Shin) "Winners and losers from recent asset price changes" (FEDS Note May 2023) (with Will Gamber) "Substitutability between Balance Sheet Reductions and Policy Rate Hikes: Some Illustrations and a Discussion" (FEDS Note June 2022) (with Etienne Gagnon, James Hebden, and James Trevino) Discussion Papers Discussion of 'When Inequality Matters for Macro and Macro Matters for Inequality' (pdf) (with Christopher D. Carroll) NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2017, volume 32 Other Projects I am an active contributor to the Econ-ARK project (website)

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2019-present Economist, Federal Reserve Board 2014-2019 Ph.D. Candidate, Johns Hopkins, Department of Economics 2012-2014 Officer, International Monetary Fund 2005-2009 Vice President, Nomura International Plc. Papers "Do Households Substitute Intertemporally? 10 Structural Shocks That Suggest Not" (Latest pdf) Abstract I combine microdata on the intertemporal marginal propensity to consume (iMPC) with 10 different structural macro shocks to identify the role of intertemporal substitution in consumption behavior. Although some of the shocks lead to large and persistent changes in real interest rates—which in many models would induce a large intertemporal substitution effect—I find no evidence that households shift the timing of their consumption in response to these interest rate changes. Indeed, the iMPC explains almost all the aggregate consumption response, leaving no role for intertemporal substitution. "Income Shocks and their Transmission into Consumption" (Latest pdf, Working Paper) (with Alexandros Theloudis) This review will appear in the Encyclopedia of Consumption. "Welfare and Spending Effects of Consumption Stimulus Policies" (Latest pdf, FEDS Working Paper) (with Chris Carroll, Ivan Frankovic, and Häkon Tretvoll) Abstract Using a heterogeneous agent model calibrated to match measured spending dynamics over four years following an income shock (Fagereng et al. (2021)), we assess the effectiveness of three fiscal stimulus policies employed during recent recessions. Unemployment insurance (UI) extensions are the clear ``bang for the buck'' winner when effectiveness is measured in utility terms. Stimulus checks are second best and have two advantages (over UI): they arrive and are spent faster, despite being less targeted, and they are scalable to any desired size. A temporary (two-year) cut in the rate of wage taxation is considerably less effective than the other policies and has negligible effects in the version of our model without a multiplier. "A Parsimonious Model of Idiosyncratic Income" (Latest pdf, FEDS Working Paper) (with Martin B Holm and Häkon Tretvoll) Abstract The standard model of permanent and transitory income provides estimates that differ depending on the type of moments used---levels or differences---and the weighting matrix applied. We propose two changes to the standard model. First, we account for the time-aggregated nature of observed income data. Second, we allow transitory shocks to persist for varying lengths of time. With only one additional parameter, our proposed model consistently estimates the parameters of the income process irrespective of the moments and weighting matrix applied. We strongly advise against estimating the standard model using difference moments. "Consumption Heterogeneity: Micro Drivers and Macro Implications" (Latest pdf, FEDS Working Paper, Danmarks Nationalbank Working Paper, Code) (with Andreas Kuchler) Forthcoming at the American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics Abstract We propose a new empirical method to estimate the response of consumption to permanent and transitory income shocks for different groups of households. The method overcomes the time aggregation bias found in existing literature. We apply this method to administrative data from Denmark, allowing us to finely divide the population to identify heterogeneous behavior. We find a strong relation between liquid wealth and consumption smoothing. In addition, liquid wealth predicts consumption behavior across all other household characteristics we consider. We use our method to estimate the size of monetary policy redistribution channels. "In Search of Lost Time Aggregation" (Latest pdf, FEDS Working Paper, Code) (previously circulated as "Time Aggregation in Panel Data on Income and Consumption") Economics Letters, Volume 189, 2020, Article 108998 Abstract In 1960, Working noted that time aggregation of a random walk induces serial correlation in the first difference that is not present in the original series. This important contribution has been overlooked in a recent literature analyzing income and consumption in panel data. I examine Blundell, Pistaferri and Preston (2008) as an important example for which time aggregation has quantitatively large effects. Using new techniques to correct for the problem, I find the estimate for the partial insurance to transitory shocks, originally estimated to be 0.05, increases to 0.24. This larger estimate resolves the dissonance between the low partial consumption insurance estimates of Blundell, Pistaferri and Preston (2008) and the high marginal propensities to consume found in the natural experiment literature. A remaining puzzle is the low estimate I recover for the partial insurance to permanent shocks. "Modeling the Consumption Response to the CARES Act" (Latest pdf, FEDS Working Paper, Code) (with Christopher D. Carroll, Jiri Slacalek, and Matthew N. White) Interactive Jupyter Notebook International Journal of Central Banking, Issue 67, March 2021 Abstract To predict the effects of the 2020 U.S. CARES Act on consumption, we extend a model that matches responses of households to past consumption stimulus packages. The extension allows us to account for two novel features of the coronavirus crisis. First, during the lockdown, many types of spending are undesirable or impossible. Second, some of the jobs that disappear during the lockdown will not reappear when it is lifted. We estimate that, if the lockdown is short-lived, the combination of expanded unemployment insurance benefits and stimulus payments should be sufficient to allow a swift recovery in consumer spending to its pre-crisis levels. If the lockdown lasts longer, an extension of enhanced unemployment benefits will likely be necessary if consumption spending is to recover. "Sticky Expectations and Consumption Dynamics" (pdf, Code) (with Christopher D. Carroll, Jiri Slacalek, Kiichi Tokuoka and Matthew N. White) NBER Working Paper No. 24377, March 2018. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, Volume 12, No. 3, July 2020 Abstract Macroeconomic models often invoke consumption "habits" to explain the substantial persistence of aggregate consumption growth. But a large literature has found no evidence of habits in microeconomic datasets that measure the behavior of individual households. We show that the apparent conflict can be explained by a model in which consumers have accurate knowledge of their personal circumstances but 'sticky expectations' about the macroeconomy. In our model, the persistence of aggregate consumption growth reflects consumers' imperfect attention to aggregate shocks. Our proposed degree of (macro) inattention has negligible utility costs, because aggregate shocks constitute only a tiny proportion of the uncertainty that consumers face. "A Note on the Asymptotic Properties of the Two-Sector Robinson-Solow-Srinivasan Model" (pdf) Abstract I show that the periodic and chaotic behavior exhibited by the two-sector Robinson-Solow-Srinivasan model in discrete-time is asymptotically irrelevant. If the discrete time interval is smaller than a critical limit, the qualitative properties of the model are the same as those in the continuous-time model. Policy Notes "Failure of Silicon Valley Bank Reduced Local Consumer Spending but Had Limited Effect on Aggregate Spending" (Kansas City Fed Economic Bulletin September 2023) (with Taeyoung Doh and Minchul Shin) "Winners and losers from recent asset price changes" (FEDS Note May 2023) (with Will Gamber) "Substitutability between Balance Sheet Reductions and Policy Rate Hikes: Some Illustrations and a Discussion" (FEDS Note June 2022) (with Etienne Gagnon, James Hebden, and James Trevino) Discussion Papers Discussion of 'When Inequality Matters for Macro and Macro Matters for Inequality' (pdf) (with Christopher D. Carroll) NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2017, volume 32 Other Projects I am an active contributor to the Econ-ARK project (website)

I combine microdata on the intertemporal marginal propensity to consume (iMPC) with 10 different structural macro shocks to identify the role of intertemporal substitution in consumption behavior. Although some of the shocks lead to large and persistent changes in real interest rates—which in many models would induce a large intertemporal substitution effect—I find no evidence that households shift the timing of their consumption in response to these interest rate changes. Indeed, the iMPC explains almost all the aggregate consumption response, leaving no role for intertemporal substitution.

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To predict the effects of the 2020 U.S. CARES Act on consumption, we extend a model that matches responses of households to past consumption stimulus packages. The extension allows us to account for two novel features of the coronavirus crisis. First, during the lockdown, many types of spending are undesirable or impossible. Second, some of the jobs that disappear during the lockdown will not reappear when it is lifted. We estimate that, if the lockdown is short-lived, the combination of expanded unemployment insurance benefits and stimulus payments should be sufficient to allow a swift recovery in consumer spending to its pre-crisis levels. If the lockdown lasts longer, an extension of enhanced unemployment benefits will likely be necessary if consumption spending is to recover.

How to calculate focal length? The focal length of a lens for a single element lens system can be calculated using the lens formula: Where: f represents the ...

Using a heterogeneous agent model calibrated to match measured spending dynamics over four years following an income shock (Fagereng et al. (2021)), we assess the effectiveness of three fiscal stimulus policies employed during recent recessions. Unemployment insurance (UI) extensions are the clear ``bang for the buck'' winner when effectiveness is measured in utility terms. Stimulus checks are second best and have two advantages (over UI): they arrive and are spent faster, despite being less targeted, and they are scalable to any desired size. A temporary (two-year) cut in the rate of wage taxation is considerably less effective than the other policies and has negligible effects in the version of our model without a multiplier.

The focal length (f) can then be calculated using the formula: 1/f = 1/u + 1/v. Note 1: In this simulation a focal length (between 15 and 35 cm) is set ...

Macroeconomic models often invoke consumption "habits" to explain the substantial persistence of aggregate consumption growth. But a large literature has found no evidence of habits in microeconomic datasets that measure the behavior of individual households. We show that the apparent conflict can be explained by a model in which consumers have accurate knowledge of their personal circumstances but 'sticky expectations' about the macroeconomy. In our model, the persistence of aggregate consumption growth reflects consumers' imperfect attention to aggregate shocks. Our proposed degree of (macro) inattention has negligible utility costs, because aggregate shocks constitute only a tiny proportion of the uncertainty that consumers face.

In 1960, Working noted that time aggregation of a random walk induces serial correlation in the first difference that is not present in the original series. This important contribution has been overlooked in a recent literature analyzing income and consumption in panel data. I examine Blundell, Pistaferri and Preston (2008) as an important example for which time aggregation has quantitatively large effects. Using new techniques to correct for the problem, I find the estimate for the partial insurance to transitory shocks, originally estimated to be 0.05, increases to 0.24. This larger estimate resolves the dissonance between the low partial consumption insurance estimates of Blundell, Pistaferri and Preston (2008) and the high marginal propensities to consume found in the natural experiment literature. A remaining puzzle is the low estimate I recover for the partial insurance to permanent shocks.

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Impact Lighting kit designed to provide recommended lighting to capture impact location . Impact Lighting kit includes: Spotlight, 2 foot long powered ...